may the games begin!

Well… week one of 2022 was nice… 😉
 

#1 Yuval Harari explained why humanity is far from helpless. Vaccines are great. Epidemics are no longer uncontrollable forces of nature. Science is great! 😉 Covid also has underlined the power of information technology. Another remarkable thing about the Covid is that the internet didn’t break. As humanity automates, digitalises and shifts activities online, it exposes us to new dangers – potential digital infrastructure crashes (our next “covid”) or even future digital dictatorships! Science cannot replace politics – and it is a pity… Our scientific achievements have placed an enormous responsibility on the shoulders of politicians – a lot of them have failed us… One reason for the gap between scientific success and political failure is that scientists co-operated globally, whereas politicians tended to feud…

#2 It seems that the bubble might be close to bursting. U.S. stocks finished lower Friday, and the Nasdaq Composite booked its worst week since February 2021…Will we get a bit more time on this crazy ride?
 

#3 But… how can we start another year without having some top list of trends? Expect momentum in Life Science Technologies. Really fast internet and better coverage with the expansion of 5G-6G and Satellite-Based Internet Usage. High-Performance Computing becoming mainstream, in parallel with continued growth in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data Analytics, and Cloud Computing. Internet security and privacy issues will dominate our day-to-day. The Metaverse will shine in 2022 and… NFT Platforms will Boom and Blockchain technology will prevail! The Robotics sector will also become more prevalent. And last, but not least… there will be an increased urgency in the Renewable Energy Technology sector

A monument to former President Nursultan Nazarbaev was demolished by protesters in Taldykorgan in southern Kazakhstan on January 5. Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev declared a nationwide state of emergency after thousands of anti-government protesters clashed with police and stormed government buildings in an unprecedented wave of unrest in the oil-rich Central Asian nation that was sparked by a fuel price hike.

Purpose

Finding your purpose is tough for most and maybe easy for a lucky few

It took me a lot of time to understand want I like and don’t like to do. What makes me tick. What drives me. What gives me pleasure.

I now know what to put forth

Talks to help you find your purpose | TED Talks

purpose
c. 1300, purpus, “intention, aim, goal; object to be kept in view; proper function for which something exists,” from Anglo-French purpos, Old French porpos “an aim, intention” (12c.), from porposer “to put forth,” from por- “forth” (from a variant of Latin pro- “forth;” see pur-) + Old French poser “to put, place” (see pose (v.1)).

Etymologically it is equivalent to Latin propositium “a thing proposed or intended,” but evidently formed in French from the same elements. From mid-14c. as “theme of a discourse, subject matter of a narrative (as opposed to digressions), hence to the purpose “appropriate” (late 14c.). On purpose “by design, intentionally” is attested from 1580s; earlier of purpose (early 15c.).

take vaccines

Take Vaccines (from Wear Sunscreen)

Vaccines are better than Sunscreen!

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, vaccines would be it.

The long-term benefits of vaccines have been proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience. I will dispense this advice now. Enjoy the power and beauty of your youth. Oh, never mind. You will not understand the power and beauty of your youth until they’ve faded. But trust me, in 20 years, you’ll look back at photos of yourself and recall in a way you can’t grasp now how much possibility lay before you and how fabulous you really looked. You are not as fat as you imagine.

If you’re worried about the way you look, try to remember, you’re probably fatter than you think, maybe you should consider an eating disorder.

Don’t worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blind side you at 4 pm on some idle Tuesday.

Don’t worry too much about the future. If you’re nervous about an exam, ring up your school to schedule time, and make a bomb threat. If you’re a girl, lie about period pains to get out of anything you don’t want to do. Cheat if you think you can get away with it. Remember, someone with richer parents is getting private tuition.

Do one thing every day that scares you. Sing.

Do one thing each day that scares you, sing, dance, jump in front of a car.

Don’t be reckless with other people’s hearts. Don’t put up with people who are reckless with yours.

Be open to new love. Remember, you can’t get pregnant the first time you have sex.

Floss. Don’t waste your time on jealousy. Sometimes you’re ahead, sometimes you’re behind. The race is long and, in the end, it’s only with yourself. Remember compliments you receive. Forget the insults. If you succeed in doing this, tell me how.

Get revenge, don’t forgive anyone for anything,

Keep your old love letters. Throw away your old bank statements.

Keep your old love letters, if you see an old lover in the street, try to run them over in your car.

Stretch. Don’t feel guilty if you don’t know what you want to do with your life. The most interesting people I know didn’t know at 22 what they wanted to do with their lives. Some of the most interesting 40 year olds I know still don’t know.

If you’re unsure about what you’re going to do with your life, Try to remember, some of the most interesting people didn’t know what they were going to do at age twenty-two or even at forty, and nearly all of them are unemployed drug addicts forced to live on cat food.

Get plenty of calcium. Be kind to your knees. You’ll miss them when they’re gone.

Be kind to your knees, you’ll miss them when you are knee-capped by a loan shark.

Maybe you’ll marry, maybe you won’t. Maybe you’ll have children, maybe you won’t. Maybe you’ll divorce at 40, maybe you’ll dance the funky chicken on your 75th anniversary. Whatever you do, don’t congratulate yourself too much, or berate yourself either. Your choices are half chance. So are everybody else’s.

Maybe you’ll marry, maybe you won’t, maybe you’ll have children, maybe you won’t, if you do have children, lock them under the stairs.

Enjoy your body. Use it every way you can. Don’t be afraid of it or of what other people think of it. It’s the greatest instrument you’ll ever own. Dance, even if you have nowhere to do it but your living room. Read the directions, even if you don’t follow them. Do not read beauty magazines. They will only make you feel ugly. Get to know your parents. You never know when they’ll be gone for good.

Get to really know your parents, they’re good for money. Milk them, then put them in an old people’s home.

Be nice to your siblings. They’re your best link to your past and the people most likely to stick with you in the future. Understand that friends come and go, but with a precious few you should hold on. Work hard to bridge the gaps in geography and lifestyle, because the older you get, the more you need the people who knew you when you were young.

Also understand that friends will come and go. This is because of your irritating personality. Nobody likes you. So if the only thing getting you thought the day is the misconception that people like you, end it now. (bang)

Live in New York City once, but leave before it makes you hard. Live in Northern California once, but leave before it makes you soft. Travel, but with a mask.

Travel as often as you can, live in New York City once, live in Northern California once, never live in Adelaide, it’s a hole.

Accept certain inalienable truths: Prices will rise. Politicians will philander. You, too, will get old. And when you do, you’ll fantasize that when you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble, and children respected their elders. Respect your elders. Don’t expect anyone else to support you. Maybe you have a trust fund. Maybe you’ll have a wealthy spouse. But you never know when either one might run out.

Expect others to support you, it’s easy to get the dole and still do cash in hand work. Remember, only you will truly take care of you, so carry a concealed weapon.

Don’t mess too much with your hair or by the time you’re 40 it will look 85.

Don’t mess too much with your hair, or else by the time you’re thirty-five, you’ll look like Greg Matthews.

Be careful whose advice you buy, buy be patient with those who supply it. Advice is a form of nostalgia. Dispensing it is a way of fishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling it for more than it’s worth.

But most of all, don’t aim too high, you’re probably only suited to an office or factory job.

But trust me on the vaccines!

 

 

 

covid lessons

I recently read a great article by one of the greatest modern thinkers – Yuval Harari… 

Multi-line chart with smaller detail chart showing employment in agriculture from 1400s for various coutnries. Inset chart is detailed from 1991

It reminds me of the Wear Sunscreen speech that we should adapt to our current predicaments… (see adaptation in next post!)

A couple of things standout from the article:

. humanity is far from helpless

. Epidemics are no longer uncontrollable forces of nature

. Science is great! 😉

. Covid has underlined the power of information technology

. One of the most remarkable things about the Covid year is that the internet didn’t break

. As humanity automates, digitalises and shifts activities online, it exposes us to new dangers – potential digital infrastructure crashes (our next “covid”)

. Science cannot replace politics – and it is a pity…

. Our scientific achievements have placed an enormous responsibility on the shoulders of politicians – a lot of them have failed us…

. One reason for the gap between scientific success and political failure is that scientists co-operated globally, whereas politicians tended to feud

. we have to be beware of future digital dictatorships

. we should never allow too much data to be concentrated in any one place.

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. People of all political camps should agree on at least three main lessons:

First, we need to safeguard our digital infrastructure. It has been our salvation during this pandemic, but it could soon be the source of an even worse disaster.

Second, each country should invest more in its public health system. This seems self-evident, but politicians and voters sometimes succeed in ignoring the most obvious lesson.

Third, we should establish a powerful global system to monitor and prevent pandemics. In the age-old war between humans and pathogens, the frontline passes through the body of each and every human being. If this line is breached anywhere on the planet, it puts all of us in danger. Even the richest people in the most developed countries have a personal interest to protect the poorest people in the least developed countries. If a new virus jumps from a bat to a human in a poor village in some remote jungle, within a few days that virus can take a walk down Wall Street.

 

 

Trends to expect for 2022

The Top 10 Technology and Business Trends of 2022

The Top 10 Technology and Business Trends of 2022

Momentum in Life Science Technologies

Networking and Interconnectivity: Expansion of 5G-6G and Satellite-Based Internet Usage

High-Performance Computing Becomes Mainstream

Continued Growth in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data Analytics, and Cloud Computing

Internet Security and Privacy Dominate

The Metaverse Will Shine in 2022

NFT Platforms Will Boom

The Robotics Sector Will Become More Prevalent

Increased Urgency in the Renewable Energy Technology Sector

Blockchain Technology Prevails

 

Ok computer?

Guess what… I might have written this or not… and in the future most of what you might hear might not be from a human at all… Ok computer?

AI voice actors sound more human than ever—and they’re ready to hire
A new wave of startups are using deep learning to build synthetic voice actors for digital assistants, video-game characters, and corporate videos.

Read the Whole article by clicking here… or just read the following snippets!

AI voices have grown particularly popular among brands looking to maintain a consistent sound in millions of interactions with customers. With the ubiquity of smart speakers today, and the rise of automated customer service agents as well as digital assistants embedded in cars and smart devices, brands may need to produce upwards of a hundred hours of audio a month. But they also no longer want to use the generic voices offered by traditional text-to-speech technology—a trend that accelerated during the pandemic as more and more customers skipped in-store interactions to engage with companies virtually.

“If I’m Pizza Hut, I certainly can’t sound like Domino’s, and I certainly can’t sound like Papa John’s,” says Rupal Patel, a professor at Northeastern University and the founder and CEO of VocaliD, which promises to build custom voices that match a company’s brand identity. “These brands have thought about their colors. They’ve thought about their fonts. Now they’ve got to start thinking about the way their voice sounds as well.”

Whereas companies used to have to hire different voice actors for different markets—the Northeast versus Southern US, or France versus Mexico—some voice AI firms can manipulate the accent or switch the language of a single voice in different ways. This opens up the possibility of adapting ads on streaming platforms depending on who is listening, changing not just the characteristics of the voice but also the words being spoken. A beer ad could tell a listener to stop by a different pub depending on whether it’s playing in New York or Toronto, for example. Resemble.ai, which designs voices for ads and smart assistants, says it’s already working with clients to launch such personalized audio ads on Spotify and Pandora.

The gaming and entertainment industries are also seeing the benefits. Sonantic, a firm that specializes in emotive voices that can laugh and cry or whisper and shout, works with video-game makers and animation studios to supply the voice-overs for their characters. Many of its clients use the synthesized voices only in pre-production and switch to real voice actors for the final production. But Sonantic says a few have started using them throughout the process, perhaps for characters with fewer lines. Resemble.ai and others have also worked with film and TV shows to patch up actors’ performances when words get garbled or mispronounced.

 

Ultra delivery

Another great Sacra article to slowly read and think through the whole ultrafast delivery phenomena!

Read here the whole thing

Today, there is a new crop of companies looking to push the envelope on shipping even further. Dark store-enabled, “ultrafast” delivery companies are getting funded and expanding across Europe, Asia, Russia, South America, and the United States.

Their big brand promise is 10 to 15 minute delivery—or “faster than you can,” as the tag line for Gorillas goes—on grocery items.

With dark stores in densely populated urban areas on the back-end, and armies of delivery people on bikes and scooters for the last mile, they’re betting that delivering items in just 15 minutes can be as powerful a wedge as Amazon’s promise of two-day shipping was in 2005.

The strategy is largely out of the same playbook as other on-demand apps—capture customers, consolidate control over a high-frequency behavior, expand and cross-sell to other higher-margin categories. But their challenges are significant as well, from spoilage rates on grocery to hard-to-predict inventory requirements and building relationships with upstream suppliers.

Key points

  • Ultrafast delivery services operate out of 3,000~ square foot dark stores in urban core areas. That enables 10-15 minute delivery within their .75-1 mile service radius, as well as reducing supply chain costs and minimizing spoilage.
  • Dark store profitability is measured with contribution margin, which excludes fixed costs. With $25 average order value in a mature ultrafast dark store with 500 orders per day, we project about 13% contribution margin.
  • In 2020, the growth of the online grocery market rapidly accelerated in the United States. The share of all grocery spending that took place online grew from 5% to 7%, with $96B in total online sales for the year up from $62B the previous year.
  • We expect the total volume of online grocery sales in the U.S. to continue to grow, hitting $192B by 2025. 60% of people bought more groceries online during COVID and said they plan to buy groceries online at the same frequency or more often in the future
  • The ultrafast vision is to replace the local grocery store the way Uber disrupted car ownership. By turning groceries into something summoned at the touch of a button rather than something planned and scheduled, ultrafast services want to change how we shop entirely.
  • But the economics of ultrafast are hard, and micromobility is a cautionary tale. Both are capital-intensive industries with no customer loyalty, low switching costs, and limited network effects.
  • Non-perishables with a high premium on fast delivery are where the ultrafast model makes most sense. Convenience store-type products like detergents, tobacco, phone chargers and grocery staples have low spoilage and consumers want to get them quickly, which fits the dark store model.
  • Ultimately, CVS ($110B) and 7-Eleven ($42B) should be ultrafast’s real targets, not Kroger ($28B) or Albertsons ($9B). Online grocery is a massive challenge both in logistics and demand generation, and ultrafast services are better off building a better convenience store than challenging for the whole of the online grocery market.